Stochasticity and Heterogeneity in the Aedes aegypti/Dengue Transmission System: Implications for Spread and Control of Infection

The Aedes aegypti mosquito is the vector for several infections of public health concern, including dengue, chikungunya, Zika and yellow fever. The mosquito lives in close proximity to humans, typically only disperses over short distances and its population density is often highly heterogeneous across space. As a result, the transmission dynamics of the infections it vectors are subject to significant heterogeneity which must be accounted for when modelling the spread and control of these infections. Through a series of vignettes, we will discuss some of this modelling, utilizing a number of different mathematical and simulation frameworks—from deterministic and stochastic multi-patch models through to cohort or individual-based simulation models. Pros and cons of the various approaches will be discussed.