An approximate Bayesian computation approach for embryonic astrocyte migration model reduction

During embryonic development of the retina of the eye, astrocytes, a type of glial cell, migrate over the retinal surface and form a dynamic mesh. This mesh then serves as scaffolding for blood vessels to form the retinal vasculature network that supplies oxygen and nutrients to the inner portion of the retina. Astrocyte spreading proceeds in a radially symmetric manner over the retinal surface. Additionally, astrocytes mature from astrocyte precursor cells (APCs) to immature perinatal astrocytes (IPAs) during this embryonic stage. We extend a previously-developed continuum model that describes tension-driven migration and oxygen and growth factor influenced proliferation and differentiation. Comparing numerical simulations to experimental data, we identify model equation components that can be removed via model reduction using approximate Bayesian computation (ABC). Our results verify experimental studies indicating that the choroid oxygen supply plays a negligible role in promoting differentiation of APCs into IPAs and in promoting IPA proliferation, and the hyaloid artery oxygen supply and APC apoptosis play negligible roles in astrocyte spreading and differentiation.