General ecological models for human subsistence, health and poverty. Part 2. The world’s rural poor rely heavily on their immediate natural environment for subsistence and suffer high rates of morbidity and mortality from infectious diseases. We present a general framework for modeling human subsistence and health of the rural poor based on coupling simple models …
Mathematical models of poverty and infectious diseases Dr. Pilyugin will be presenting Dr. Ngonghala’s paper that is in review. Other topics may be discussed.
Unraveling within-host signatures of dengue infection at the population level Dengue virus causes worldwide concern with nearly 100 million infected cases reported annually. The within-host dynamics differ between primary and secondary infections, where secondary infections with a different virus serotype typically produce higher viral loads and induce more severe disease. We build upon the variable …
Intracellular transport: Inferring properties of molecular motors through rigor motor experiments and Bayesian inference. Part 1. Bayes’s Theorem yields the conditional probability of an event A given event B based on prior knowledge about related events. When considering distributions, Bayes’s Theorem can be used to describe the distribution of model parameters given observed data. In …
Antibodies: friend or foe? A mathematical investigation Antibodies that bind viral surface proteins can limit the spread of an infection through neutralizing and non-neutralizing functions. During both acute and chronic virus infections, antibody–virion immune complexes are formed, but do not always ensure protection. Moreover, cross-reactive antibody responses may contribute to increased disease severity in a phenomenon …
Intracellular transport: Inferring properties of molecular motors through rigor motor experiments and Bayesian inference. Part 2. Bayes’s Theorem yields the conditional probability of an event A given event B based on prior knowledge about related events. When considering distributions, Bayes’s Theorem can be used to describe the distribution of model parameters given observed data. In …
Examining the probability of silent circulation of polio using the endemic potential statistic Polio is a fecal-oral disease that can cause fever and flu-like symptoms, and, in more rare instances, acute flaccid paralysis (AFP). One characteristic of poliovirus is asymptomatic transmission amongst individuals who have already had a poliovirus infection. This allows the virus to …
Linking Resilience and Robustness and Uncovering their Trade-offs in Coupled Natural-Human Systems Robustness and resilience are concepts in systems thinking that have grown in importance and popularity. Â For many complex social-ecological systems, however, robustness and resilience are difficult to quantify and the connections and trade-offs between them difficult to study. Â Most studies have either focused …
Impact of biased movement on the spread of infectious diseases Many recent outbreaks and spatial spread of infectious diseases have been influenced by human movement over air, sea and land transport networks, and/or anthropogenic-induced pathogen/vector movement. These spatial movements in heterogeneous environments and networks are often asymmetric (biased). The effects of asymmetric movement versus symmetric …
