Approximating the probability of invasion in discrete stochastic population models When an individual with a novel trait is introduced in a new environment, we would like to understand what drives the likelihood that its lineage will persist. In deterministic population models, whether the invasive population “succeeds” often depends on whether the parameters of the system …
Spatial and temporal dynamics of dengue in southeast Asia Dengue viruses exist as four antigenically distinct serotypes DENV1-DENV4 that interact with each other in multiple immune-mediated mechanisms. One of these mechanisms, immune-mediated enhancement, through which immunity derived from one serotype leads to either enhanced disease or enhanced viral replication of subsequent infections, has been the focus of …
General ecological models for human subsistence, health and poverty. Part 1. The world’s rural poor rely heavily on their immediate natural environment for subsistence and suffer high rates of morbidity and mortality from infectious diseases. We present a general framework for modeling human subsistence and health of the rural poor based on coupling simple models …
General ecological models for human subsistence, health and poverty. Part 2. The world’s rural poor rely heavily on their immediate natural environment for subsistence and suffer high rates of morbidity and mortality from infectious diseases. We present a general framework for modeling human subsistence and health of the rural poor based on coupling simple models …
Mathematical models of poverty and infectious diseases Dr. Pilyugin will be presenting Dr. Ngonghala’s paper that is in review. Other topics may be discussed.
Unraveling within-host signatures of dengue infection at the population level Dengue virus causes worldwide concern with nearly 100 million infected cases reported annually. The within-host dynamics differ between primary and secondary infections, where secondary infections with a different virus serotype typically produce higher viral loads and induce more severe disease. We build upon the variable …
Intracellular transport: Inferring properties of molecular motors through rigor motor experiments and Bayesian inference. Part 1. Bayes’s Theorem yields the conditional probability of an event A given event B based on prior knowledge about related events. When considering distributions, Bayes’s Theorem can be used to describe the distribution of model parameters given observed data. In …
Antibodies: friend or foe? A mathematical investigation Antibodies that bind viral surface proteins can limit the spread of an infection through neutralizing and non-neutralizing functions. During both acute and chronic virus infections, antibody–virion immune complexes are formed, but do not always ensure protection. Moreover, cross-reactive antibody responses may contribute to increased disease severity in a phenomenon …
Intracellular transport: Inferring properties of molecular motors through rigor motor experiments and Bayesian inference. Part 2. Bayes’s Theorem yields the conditional probability of an event A given event B based on prior knowledge about related events. When considering distributions, Bayes’s Theorem can be used to describe the distribution of model parameters given observed data. In …
Examining the probability of silent circulation of polio using the endemic potential statistic Polio is a fecal-oral disease that can cause fever and flu-like symptoms, and, in more rare instances, acute flaccid paralysis (AFP). One characteristic of poliovirus is asymptomatic transmission amongst individuals who have already had a poliovirus infection. This allows the virus to …
