Quantifying the effects of vaccines and a booster vaccine dose on the dynamics of COVID-19 in the United States The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic continues to have a devastating impact on health systems and economies across the globe, with the USA among the worse impacted nations. Implementing public health measures in tandem with effective …
Using Mathematics to Unravel Mosquito Behavioral Dynamics that Capacitates Malaria Parasite Success in a Human-Mosquito Built Environment Many bottlenecks can hamper a successful malaria parasite transmission from one human to another. For example, a successful transmission of the parasite from humans to mosquitoes and back to humans requires that a susceptible feeding female mosquito successfully …
The impact of vaccination on human papillomavirus infection with disassortative geographical mixing Human papillomavirus (HPV) infection can spread between regions. What is the impact of disassortative geographical mixing on the dynamics of HPV transmission? Vaccination is effective in preventing HPV infection. How to allocate HPV vaccines between genders within each region and between regions to …
What is Influenza-Like Illness? Influenza-like illness (ILI) is a not a single disease, but is a large group of pathogens grouped together because they have similar symptoms. In the United States, ILI affects an estimated 9-49 million people every year. The CDC defines the presence ILI as a fever of at least 100 degrees Fahrenheit, …
Mathematical models of infectious diseases -- Consequences of underlying assumptions Mathematical models have been used to study various disease transmission dynamics and control for epidemics. Many of these studies are based on SEIR- types of compartmental models with exponentially distributed stage durations. We examine the underlying assumptions made in some of these models and present …
Stochasticity and Heterogeneity in the Aedes aegypti/Dengue Transmission System: Implications for Spread and Control of Infection The Aedes aegypti mosquito is the vector for several infections of public health concern, including dengue, chikungunya, Zika and yellow fever. The mosquito lives in close proximity to humans, typically only disperses over short distances and its population density …
Modeling rate of adaptive trait evolution using Cox–Ingersoll–Ross process: An Approximate Bayesian Computation approach Abstract: Over the past decades, the Gaussian process has been widely used to study trait evolution. In particular, two members of Gaussian processes, Brownian motion and the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, have been frequently applied for describing continuous trait evolution. Models have been …
Modelling environmentally transmitted pathogens Many pathogens are able to replicate or survive in abiotic environments. Disease transmission models that include environmental reservoirs and environment-to-host transmission have used a variety of functional forms and modelling frameworks without a clear connection to pathogen ecology or space and time scales. We present a conceptual framework to organize microparasites …
Transmission intervals and COVID control The spread of epidemics is structured by delay distributions, including the now-famous "serial interval" between the symptom-onset times of an infector and an infectee (often conflated with the "generation interval" between infection times). Defining these time distributions clearly, and describing how they relate to each other, and to key parameters …
Vector-borne diseases spread and control: The case of Chikungunya in French overseas territories and consequences for dissemination in mainland territory Dengue, chikungunya and Zika viruses have expanded their geographic range during recent decades and are now considered emerging threats in temperate areas. In particular autochthonous transmissions of chikungunya virus (CHIKV) have regularly been observed in …